The Project

Not since 1952 has the US encountered a general election campaign involving two candidates that have not yet sat in the executive office. Coupled with a general sentiment for change, low presidential approval ratings and racing primary dates, an unusually large amount of attention has fallen directly on the primary campaigns of 2008. The media attention and disconnect between the White House and the candidates provide an extraordinary opportunity to investigate the relationship between campaigns and the media in the primary setting.

Beginning in the summer of 2007 we employ daily automated content coding of candidate and newspaper websites, coupled with a collection of statewide polls, to measure and test the dynamic mechanisms of presidential primary campaigns.

Research Questions

Who won the invisible primary and does winning the invisible primary predict primary success?

How much do candidates' local, as opposed to national, media profiles relate to primary success?

Does frontloading increase or decrease the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire momentum?

How do campaigns react to the agendas and rhetoric of the opposition and the news media?

How does press attention and coverage differ by a candidate's poll standings?

How persistant is primary momentum and what explains its persistance?

Coding Details

Forthcoming...